Mental Models

• Strip away assumptions and conventional wisdom

• Identify what we know to be true

• Build solutions from these basic truths

• Question everything, especially "that's how it's always been done"

• What could go wrong? How do I prevent it?

• What would failure look like? Work backwards

• Sometimes it's easier to avoid stupidity than seek brilliance

• "Show me where I'm going to die so I don't go there (Charlie Munger)"

• Identify which 20% of inputs create 80% of outputs

• Double down on what works, eliminate what doesn't

• Not all tasks are created equal - prioritize ruthlessly

• Applies to time, money, relationships, and almost everything

• Clarifying: What do you mean by...? Can you give an example?

• Probing assumptions: What are we assuming? Why would someone assume this?

• Probing evidence: How do you know? What evidence supports this?

• Exploring perspectives: What's an alternative view? How would others respond?

• Examining consequences: What are the implications? Then what happens?

• Don't multiply entities beyond necessity

• When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras

• Complexity should be added only when required

• Simple solutions are easier to understand, test, and maintain

• What's already spent is gone - focus on future value, not past investment

• Ask: Would I start this today knowing what I know now?

• Cutting losses early is often the rational choice

• The question isn't 'How much have I invested?' but 'What's the best path forward?'

• Ladder up: Why does this matter? What's the bigger picture?

• Ladder down: How specifically? What are concrete examples?

• Being stuck at one level limits your thinking

• Great problem solvers move fluidly between abstract and concrete

• Start with the problem and ask why it's happening

• Take the answer and ask why again - repeat 5 times

• Usually reveals the root cause by the 5th why

• Prevents treating symptoms instead of causes

• Local maximum = best solution in your immediate area

• Global maximum = best solution overall (might be far away)

• Incremental improvements can trap you at a local peak

• Sometimes you need to take a step back to make a leap forward

• The first 80% of results comes from 20% of effort

• The last 20% of results takes 80% of effort

• Perfect is the enemy of good - know when good enough is enough

• Ask: Is the improvement worth the additional investment?

• Low confidence in the problem? Focus on speed to validate quickly

• High confidence in problem, low in solution? Balance speed and quality

• High confidence in both problem and solution? Focus on quality

• Don't over-engineer solutions to uncertain problems

• Criticism: Attacking someone's character rather than addressing specific behavior ("You always..." "You never...")

• Contempt: Treating others with disrespect, mockery, or sarcasm - the most destructive horseman

• Defensiveness: Deflecting responsibility by making excuses or playing the victim

• Stonewalling: Withdrawing from interaction, shutting down, or giving the silent treatment

• Each horseman has an antidote: gentle start-up, building appreciation, taking responsibility, self-soothing

• What?: Tell them what you're going to tell them (e.g., 'We need to align on the user problem...')

• So what?: Tell them why it's important to them (e.g., '...this is important because we need to validate that we're investing in the right area...')

• Now what?: Tell them what the next steps are and who should complete them (e.g., '...so how about we develop a research plan. How does tomorrow sound?')

• Provides a clear, structured approach to delivering feedback or information

• Start specific: concrete example or problem

• Expand to the bigger picture: why it matters, broader context

• Narrow back to specific: concrete next steps or solutions

• Shape: Narrow → Wide → Narrow (like a diamond)

• Actively seek out and record contradictory evidence to your beliefs

• Such facts are far more apt to escape memory than favorable ones

• Counter-intuitive thinking - look for what doesn't fit your worldview

• Builds stronger, more defensible theories by addressing objections upfront

• Situation: When and where did this happen? Set the context

• Behavior: What specific actions did you observe? Focus on facts, not interpretations

• Impact: What was the effect? How did it affect you, the team, or the project?

• Keeps feedback objective, specific, and actionable

• What's the one thing that, if changed, would make you decide differently?

• Focus on the decisive factor, not supporting evidence

• Helps clarify what you truly care about most

• Simplifies decision-making by cutting through complexity

• Map the conflict: Two opposing wants (D vs D') that can't both be satisfied

• Identify needs: What each want is trying to achieve (B and C)

• Find common objective: The shared goal (A) that both needs serve

• Challenge assumptions: Each logical connection hides an assumption that can be questioned

• Victim: Feels powerless, avoids responsibility, and seeks others to fix the problem

• Persecutor: Blames or criticizes, asserts control through aggression or coercion

• Rescuer: Jumps in to save others, enabling the victim role and reinforcing dependency

• Break the triangle by shifting to healthier roles like Creator, Challenger, and Coach

• First-order thinking is fast and easy - solves the immediate problem only

• Second-order thinking is deliberate - considers interactions and time

• Always ask: 'And then what?' to see downstream consequences

• Think across time: What happens in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 years?

• Extraordinary performance comes from seeing what others can't see

• Credibility: Your words and how believable you seem. Build experience, credentials, and knowledge. Be transparent about what you know and don't know.

• Reliability: Your actions and how dependable you seem. Make and keep small promises to build a track record. Deliver exactly what you promise.

• Intimacy: How safe people feel sharing with you. Demonstrate vulnerability, react to emotions behind words, and seek out others' humanity.

• Self-orientation: Your focus on self versus others (the divider). High self-orientation reduces trustworthiness. Stay present to others' needs while maintaining your sense of self.

• Emotional elements (intimacy and self-orientation) are more impactful than rational ones (credibility and reliability) for building trust